The midterm elections are said to be a referendum on the success of the incumbent president and his first two years in the White House.
With President Joe Biden’s approval ratings sluggish, inflation soaring, and his gaffe almost every mouthful, the Democratic nominee’s success means nothing when normal rules are applied.
Five days after the election, it makes no sense that Democrats have kept the Senate and have a slim chance of keeping the House.
But this is no ordinary election.
One way to interpret it is to see it as a referendum on the extreme right-wing politics of “Make America Great Again” candidates, who in some cases were recruited and endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
Take Adam Laxalt, a Republican who lost the decisive Senate race in Nevada and was a fully-funded member of Trump’s campaign-denying lies.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said he “has no mathematical way” to fail and that he may have forgotten to include discerning voters in his equation.
Across the country, up and down the polls – with a few but not many exceptions – voters condemned Trumpism.
Biden: ‘Great red wave didn’t happen’
From celebrity TV doctor Mehmet Oz beaten in Pennsylvania to anti-abortionist Yesli Vega beaten in a key Virginia campaign, it’s not a republic The red wave the party was looking forward to.
Maybe it’s also a referendum on abortion rights.
The face of this campaign season was changed this spring by a conservative-majority Supreme Court decision to strike down the constitutional right to choose an abortion.
Abortion: 40 days in four charts
With waves of Republican lawmakers banning or severely restricting abortion, Democrats have seen their popularity rise in the polls and have taken a calculated gamble to focus midterm election energy and ad dollars on abortion .
We don’t yet have a full picture of which voters play a role in swinging certain key races, but research center Civic Youth estimates that 31 percent of young people vote in swing states.
In Nevada, which finally handed control of the Senate to Democrats, Civic Youth said 64% of young voters supported the winner, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto.
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It also speaks to the fact that voters in Pennsylvania say abortion is their top concern when they cast their ballots, and nationally it is the second most important issue behind inflation.
Republicans seem out of touch with the people when it comes to abortion rights, with the Supreme Court ruling fueling angry political energy.
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But if President Biden feels euphoric tonight, the next few days could offer a reality check, as Republicans are still likely to take control of the House once the final vote closes.
That means he could still be hamstrung by political gridlock and legislative hurdles.
The House could also open an investigation into President Biden’s conduct while in office and his son Hunter Biden’s financial dealings, which they likely will.