In the U.S. Senate, governor and attorney general, Arkansas Republicans maintain a double-digit lead over their Democratic opponents.
The latest Conversation Business & Politics survey of 835 likely Arkansas voters found the senator winning. John Boozman, former White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Lt. Governor Tim Griffin speak about their Democratic opponents in a tumultuous political environment.
All three games were tested in the latest TB&P-Hendrix poll:
Q: If today is the U.S. Senate election, which of the following candidates would
you vote for?
43.5% Senator John Bozeman (R)
30.5% Natalie James (D)
5% Kenneth Cates (L)
21% undecided
Q: If the gubernatorial race is held today, which of the following candidates
will you vote?
51% Sarah Huckabee Sanders (right)
40% Chris Jones (D)
2% Ricky Dale Harrington, Jr. (L)
7% undecided
Q: If the Attorney General election is held today, which of the following is
Will you vote for the candidate?
49% Governor Tim Griffin (R)
32% Jesse Gibson (D)
19% undecided
“In no way would I expect these races to end with the numbers shown in this baseline poll. If political spending increases and undecided people make a choice, I expect the numbers for each candidate to rise. For well-funded candidates , I expect to see a significant increase,” said Roby Brock, editor-in-chief of Talk Business & Politics. “The trend line in this poll does suggest that independents are not leaning toward the Republicans as much as they used to be, but I would have to see this happening in more than one election cycle to call it a pendulum swing.”
On Monday, Talk Business & Politics will release poll results on questions 1, 2 and 3. Findings related to abortion and recreational marijuana have been released.
analyze
Talk Business & Politics seeks bipartisan input in the construction and analysis of its polls.
PhD. Jay Barth, professor emeritus of political science at Hendrix College, is heavily involved in Democratic politics and helped develop and analyze the latest polls. He provided an analysis of the poll’s results:
“This survey provides an opportunity to see how Arkansas voters are taking the temperature of the three big races they will decide in November: the race for the U.S. Senate, governor and attorney general. On all three, the Republican Party People are clearly in the vanguard and are likely to celebrate victory on November 8. However, U.S. Senator John Bozeman and Republican gubernatorial candidate Sarah Huckabee Sanders performed in their races Slightly less than expected. On the other hand, current Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin has built a strong coalition in his bid for the state’s attorney general.
“During his campaign, Bozeman was evenly distributed across the state’s geographic regions and fairly evenly among voters with and without college education (a rarity for Republicans in the Trump era) The stark age gap did show itself in the race, with his opponent Natalie James leading by a wide margin among the youngest voters and Boozman among the larger and more engaged voters 65 and older. The gender gap is also showing in the campaign, with more women hesitating about their choice in the U.S. Senate race. About three-quarters of Democrats and Republicans support their party’s nominee, respectively, But Bozeman won a majority of independents. The underfunded James would become the first black person in state history to represent Arkansas in Washington, but because she won fewer voters than the majority in that voter group, She did not have the support of black voters.
“While showing a large number of pending votes in the Senate race, nearly all voters chose their nominee in the Arkansas gubernatorial race. While it may be lower than expected based on her popularity and financial advantage, Sarah Huckabee Sanders still has a double-digit lead in the race. She’s also just starting to spend millions of dollars in her campaign coffers on a televised campaign for the fall campaign. Still, while Sanders has shown in the Trump coalition has cut her base among white, male, rural voters over 45 who lack a college degree, but Democrat Chris Jones has assembled a coalition of young college-educated urban/suburban voters, including big men of color A swathe of voters, leaving some in the game. In addition to rallying Democratic voters, he also won a majority (44%) of independents in the race. Sanders, on the other hand – she’ll be the first in the state Female Governor – Outperformed among female voters, and while the gender gap persists, she has a majority of male voters but a minority of female voters.
“Republican Attorney General nominee Tim Griffin has done the best job of the three major Republican candidates, linking the Trump coalition to the more historic Republican establishment. For example, Griffin It performed well among voters with and without a college degree and was the most consistent among Republicans of all ages, trailing only slightly behind rival Jesse Gibson among the youngest group of voters. Griffin also gained independent voters A solid vote. Griffin seems ready to lead – at least in the three games we tested.”
Robert Coon, managing partner of Impact Management Group, which works with Republican political candidates, also helped develop and analyze the latest polls. He provided an analysis of the poll’s results:
“Senator John Bozeman leads the field with 44 percent of the vote in his reelection bid, beating his closest rival, Democrat Natalie James, by 14 points. 21 percent Voters say they have yet to decide whether to play or not, but among those who have decided, Bozeman leads James 55%-38%, which may be more indicative of how the game will end in November. The fundamentals in the crowd are solid, leaving James without a foothold to close the gap. He leads in all age groups except for voters under 30, who traditionally lean toward Democrats. He’s in the Republican Party Voting preference among people (78%) suggests support from the base has increased after the primary, and he currently leads James by 6 points among independents — a key group with some Republicans nationally Naydu is struggling after Dobbs took office. Among voters without a college degree, Bozeman leads James by 45% to 26%, and 2 points among voters with a degree. Men overwhelmingly prefer Boozman (51% to 30%), who has a 6-point lead over women. Aside from undecided voters, the headwinds some Republicans are seeing among independents and women don’t seem to hold Boozman in this race On the downside, he is expected to win another term in the Senate this November.
“Sarah Huckabee Sanders leads Democratic opponent Chris Jones by 11 points in a race with only 7% of voters undecided. Jones may be from lack of real primary challenge Benefit, which has allowed him to deliver a message to general election voters since the beginning of the campaign. Sanders leads all age groups except voters under 30, 45-64 (51%) and 65+ ( 58%) of voters. Like Donald Trump, Sanders believes voters without a college degree have an advantage (57%), while Jones leads those with a degree (51%). Men (54%) and women (47%) support Sanders, although she has a smaller gap with women (+3%). Sanders leads in all four congressional districts, in CD1 (+22%) and CD4 (+3%). +18%), as expected, given Sanders’ close relationship with Donald Trump, among those voters who think the former president is very (95%) and somewhat (87%) did very well. However, it’s worth noting that she still has 31% of voters who think Trump is somewhat unfavorable, indicating that her support is broader than the former president. Overall, in the primary and most recently the Supreme Court Following Dobbs’ ruling, the current political environment could be a high-water mark for Democrats and a low-water mark for Republicans this cycle, and Sanders’ numbers could rise to an easier victory with millions of dollars in the race. The last few weeks of the event aired.
“Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin leads rival Jesse Gibson in the race for attorney general by 17 points, the widest margin of the race tested. Griffin leads in all age groups except the under-30s age group, he trails by just 1 percentage point. Republican voters staunchly back Griffin (85%), who leads independents by 13 percentage points — a 13-point lead for Republicans in an uncertain political environment A healthy edge. Griffin’s support comes mostly from men (57% to 29%), but he’s also dominated by women (+8%). Griffin tops the vote in all four congressional districts, where he CD4 and CD2 have the highest support rates.”
method
A September survey of 835 likely Arkansas voters. December 12, 2022, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8%.
Responses were collected via phone text messages. The poll is slightly weighted to take into account key demographics, including age, race, education and gender. Other methods are available upon request.
All media are welcome to reprint, reproduce or rebroadcast the information in this poll, with appropriate attribution from Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College. A link back to this particular story is also required for any digital or online use of other media outlets.
For an interview, please email Talk Business & Politics Roby Brock [email protected]